SA's super-sized swings

The Advertiser today has been reporting some polling on marginal seats in South Australia, indicating massive swings to Labor for the upcoming Federal election. The question is, are these swings for real, or are they just part of Kevin Rudd's honeymoon period, and if they're for real, are they specific to these seats or would they go state wide?

The first of the polls is from the seat of Kingston (Lib, 1.0%), in Adelaide's southern suburbs. A seat the Coalition picked up from Labor at the last election, the polls are indicating a seven percent swing to Labor, which would be more than sufficient to take the seat.

The two newer polls are from ultra-marginal seats on both sides of the house. Hindmarsh (ALP 0.1%) in Adelaide's western suburbs was one of the few seats Labor took off the Coalition at the last election, but this poll indicates that Labor would make this one safe, with 60% of the two party preferred vote. Further north, in Gawler based Wakefield (Lib, 0.7%), the Coalition would be looking likely to lose another seat they took off Labor in 2004, with Labor ahead 61-39 on the two party preferred vote.

Big numbers.

It's always a good idea to take polls like this very warily, but even if half these swings happen, the ALP could even be looking at winning less marginal SA seats, like Boothby (Lib 5.4%) in Adelaide's southern suburbs, and even perhaps Sturt (Lib 6.8%) in the inner eastern suburbs.

Certainly numbers the ALP would like hearing with such ground to make up. Given Labor's woes in SA at the last election, winning only three of eleven possible seats, you'd have to think a correction is on.

- And of course, I left out the electorate of Makin (Lib 0.9%). If these swings are even remotely true, you'd think Makin would be absolutely certain to change hands as well.