NSW state election: post-mortem

On March 24 2007, the Iemma Labor government was re-elected for another four year term. As was widely expected.

So how did my predictions fare? By my count, I scored 87 out of 93.

The ones I missed:

Tweed. Labor's only apparent loss on election night. I felt Labor would retain this seat despite it's small margin, partly because they won corresponding federal seat of Richmond against the tide in 2004.

Pittwater. Another wrong call that was apparent pretty early on. From afar, I thought McTaggart had developed a sufficient profile to retain his seat, but instead he proved to be a mere by-election abberation.

Wollondilly. In a dispiriting loss for the Liberals, this ultra-marginal seat barely moved at all.

Miranda. My 'smokey' seat. A big swing here saw ALP 2PP fall from over 59% to under 51%. Let's claim this one as an honourable loss.

Port Stephens. It took them until over a week after election night, but the Liberal Party finally took a seat off Labor; only just creeping ahead on late counting. My impression was that the poor standing of the NSW Liberal Party would keep a seat like Port Stephens out of reach, but it seems that dissatisfaction with Labor on the Hunter was high enough to see this one fall.

Lake Macquarie. Dissatisfaction with Labor in the Hunter also saw the party lose this previously safe seat. Local mayor Greg Piper pipped Labor in a seat I failed to even mention in my original preview. Indeed this result rubbished my assertion that the appeal of local mayors was overrated. As did the results in Newcastle, Maitland and Goulburn, where independent mayors all came an honourable second.

With this election done and dusted, let's look ahead to 2011.

Labor holds 52 seats in a 93 seat House of Assembly. The boundaries, I am reasonably sure, will remain unchanged during the life of this current term given that a redistribution took place in the last term. Thus only by-elections could change the present parliamentary balance.

A loss of six seat seats would see Labor slide into minority. However, the Coalition would want to take at least eight off the ALP; given that two seats - Sydney and Lake Macquarie - could easily revert from independent to Labor status. (Although it would probably take a retirement in the case of the former.) A gain of 12 seats for the Coalition would give them a majority in their own right, the other four could potentially come by defeating sitting independents. (But again, it would surely take retirements in the cases of Northern Tablelands and Port Macquarie.)

So where might these gains come from? Adam Carr has posted the post-election pendulum.

Two battlegrounds stand out:

Southern Sydney & outskirts - Miranda (ALP 0.7%), Menai (ALP 2.6%), Wollondilly (ALP 3.1%), Camden (ALP 4%) and possibly Heathcote (ALP 8.4%). Federally these areas roughly correspond to the Coalition held seats of Hughes and Macarthur, and to a lesser extent Cook.

Central Coast - The Entrance (ALP 4.7%), Gosford (ALP 4.9%) and Wyong (ALP 6.9%). Federally these areas roughly correspond to the Coalition-held seats of Dobell and Robertson.

If the Liberal Party can mount a serious challenge in four years time, then perhaps a third battleground could be added:

Western Sydney - Londonderry (ALP 7.0%), Penrith (ALP 7.2%), Riverstone (ALP 10.1%), Mulgoa (ALP 10.9%). These areas bear some overlap with the federal Coalition-held seats of Lindsay and Greenway.

Then there are the marginal seats that can't be categorised into neat geographical clumps. The Nationals will again have a crack at Monaro (ALP 6.3%). Coogee (ALP 7.1%), much of which is inside the federal seat of Wentworth may also be soft. Perhaps too the inner metro seats of Drummoyne (ALP 7.7%) and Ryde (ALP 9.9%) will also bear close examination.

So whilst 2007 was a dismal failure for the Coalition, writing off 2011 would be foolish. The talk of eight more years of Labor from some Liberal figures is nothing more than defeatist nonsense. As the federal government is presently discovering, incumbency is a wasting asset. And a government as long in the tooth as Iemma's will be in 2011 can never be assured of an easy victory.