NSW state election: post-mortem

On March 24 2007, the Iemma Labor government was re-elected for another four year term. As was widely expected.

So how did my predictions fare? By my count, I scored 87 out of 93.

The ones I missed:

Tweed. Labor's only apparent loss on election night. I felt Labor would retain this seat despite it's small margin, partly because they won corresponding federal seat of Richmond against the tide in 2004.

Pittwater. Another wrong call that was apparent pretty early on. From afar, I thought McTaggart had developed a sufficient profile to retain his seat, but instead he proved to be a mere by-election abberation.

Wollondilly. In a dispiriting loss for the Liberals, this ultra-marginal seat barely moved at all.

Miranda. My 'smokey' seat. A big swing here saw ALP 2PP fall from over 59% to under 51%. Let's claim this one as an honourable loss.

Port Stephens. It took them until over a week after election night, but the Liberal Party finally took a seat off Labor; only just creeping ahead on late counting. My impression was that the poor standing of the NSW Liberal Party would keep a seat like Port Stephens out of reach, but it seems that dissatisfaction with Labor on the Hunter was high enough to see this one fall.

Lake Macquarie. Dissatisfaction with Labor in the Hunter also saw the party lose this previously safe seat. Local mayor Greg Piper pipped Labor in a seat I failed to even mention in my original preview. Indeed this result rubbished my assertion that the appeal of local mayors was overrated. As did the results in Newcastle, Maitland and Goulburn, where independent mayors all came an honourable second.

With this election done and dusted, let's look ahead to 2011.

Labor holds 52 seats in a 93 seat House of Assembly. The boundaries, I am reasonably sure, will remain unchanged during the life of this current term given that a redistribution took place in the last term. Thus only by-elections could change the present parliamentary balance.

A loss of six seat seats would see Labor slide into minority. However, the Coalition would want to take at least eight off the ALP; given that two seats - Sydney and Lake Macquarie - could easily revert from independent to Labor status. (Although it would probably take a retirement in the case of the former.) A gain of 12 seats for the Coalition would give them a majority in their own right, the other four could potentially come by defeating sitting independents. (But again, it would surely take retirements in the cases of Northern Tablelands and Port Macquarie.)

So where might these gains come from? Adam Carr has posted the post-election pendulum.

Two battlegrounds stand out:

Southern Sydney & outskirts - Miranda (ALP 0.7%), Menai (ALP 2.6%), Wollondilly (ALP 3.1%), Camden (ALP 4%) and possibly Heathcote (ALP 8.4%). Federally these areas roughly correspond to the Coalition held seats of Hughes and Macarthur, and to a lesser extent Cook.

Central Coast - The Entrance (ALP 4.7%), Gosford (ALP 4.9%) and Wyong (ALP 6.9%). Federally these areas roughly correspond to the Coalition-held seats of Dobell and Robertson.

If the Liberal Party can mount a serious challenge in four years time, then perhaps a third battleground could be added:

Western Sydney - Londonderry (ALP 7.0%), Penrith (ALP 7.2%), Riverstone (ALP 10.1%), Mulgoa (ALP 10.9%). These areas bear some overlap with the federal Coalition-held seats of Lindsay and Greenway.

Then there are the marginal seats that can't be categorised into neat geographical clumps. The Nationals will again have a crack at Monaro (ALP 6.3%). Coogee (ALP 7.1%), much of which is inside the federal seat of Wentworth may also be soft. Perhaps too the inner metro seats of Drummoyne (ALP 7.7%) and Ryde (ALP 9.9%) will also bear close examination.

So whilst 2007 was a dismal failure for the Coalition, writing off 2011 would be foolish. The talk of eight more years of Labor from some Liberal figures is nothing more than defeatist nonsense. As the federal government is presently discovering, incumbency is a wasting asset. And a government as long in the tooth as Iemma's will be in 2011 can never be assured of an easy victory.

New South Wales election: predictions

The New South Wales state election is this Saturday. Today the
Poll Bludger has today released his usual pre-election seat-by-seat predictions. It seems like a bit of fun, so here's my effort. Like the Poll Bludger, I see the small swing to the Coalition at this election for minimal seat gains.

PB tips Camden (ALP 8.7%) to fall but neighbouring Wollondilly (ALP 4.6%) to stay with the government. I'm inclined to think it will be the other way around. PB reckons the boundary changes will hurt sitting Camden member Geoff Corrigan's "incumbency advantage" but surely this is more than offset by the increase in the Labor margin delivered by those same boundary changes. Additionally a recent Sydney Morning Herald poll showed Labor's lead to be just outside the poll's margin of error.

Wollondilly, on the other hand, a new semi-rural seat with no sitting member and a small Labor margin appears to be a soft target. Yes, Labor have selected a good candidate in local mayor Phil Costa, but I'm inclined to think the popularity of local mayors is often overstated.

The same applies the Hunter based seats of Newcastle and Maitland. Where respectively, local mayors John Tate and Peter Blackmore are running as independents. Labor's preselection mess in Newcastle does appear to make the seat genuinely vulnerable to either Tate or sitting member (and disendorsed Labor MP) Bryce Gaudry. But I think that Labor will be saved by the disunity of the non-Labor candidates. Look at the HTV instructions:
* The Greens are preferencing Gaudry, but not Tate
* Tate is preferencing Labor ahead of Gaudry
* Gaudry is preferencing neither Tate nor Labor

Probably only the Liberals have got it right, who are certainly preferencing Tate, though it's unclear whether they will also be preferencing Gaudry ahead of Labor. I therefore expect a high informal exhaust vote in Newcastle to save Labor's bacon.

My reasoning for Maitland (ALP 10.3%) staying in Labor hands is much more straightforward. I don't believe either the official Liberal candidate or a former Liberal MP in Blackwell can chop down such a healthy margin.

As for the other independent-held seats, disendorsed Liberal MP Stephen Pringle has no chance of holding Hawkesbury, the seat will surely return to the Liberal fold. And like Poll Bludger I see Manly's David Barr (Ind 0.6%) as the most vulnerable independent. This may be a bold call - for Manly has been independent-held since 1991. But Barr's failure to increase his 1999 margin in 2003 suggests he is vulnerable should there be even a modest statewide lift in the Liberal vote.

Pittwater, Tamworth and Dubbo are the other independent held seats to watch on election night. But I suspect all will remain in independent hands. Pittwater is the most difficult to call, since sitting MP Alex McTaggert, who won the seat on John Brogden's retirement, has not been tested at a general election. Tamworth and Dubbo have slender margins against the National Party, but I don't expect these to return to the Coalition fold, because, with some exceptions, the Nats have generally proven themselves pretty inept at defeating rural independents. Although Dubbo's Dawn Fardell has also yet to be tested a general election.

Similarly I expect the Nationals to fare poorly in Labor's marginals. Tweed (ALP 4.0%) and Monaro (ALP 4.4%) at opposite ends of the state are Labor's two most marginal seats. But in Tweed I expect the reportedly pro-Labor demographic changes to counteract any swing to the Nationals. Whilst in Monaro, first term MP Steve Whan should be able to exploit the incumbency advantages he didn't have at the last election.

However, I don't expect it will be all bad news for the National Party on election night. Murray-Darling (Nat 1.4%) has been redistributed from a Labor held seat to a National one. Many, including Poll Bludger, believe incumbent Labor MP Peter Black will retain this seat, but I am sceptical. Antony Greens loves to point out that Labor has never lost the seat based on Broken Hill, even when it was altered into a notional National Party seat prior to the 1991 and 1999 elections. However, this surely ignores the big statewide pro-Labor swings that occurred at both those elections. No such swing will happen this time, and the Nationals will accordingly "retain" Murray-Darling.

Back to Sydney, where suburban seats Penrith (ALP 6.6%), Menai (ALP 8.9%) and Miranda (ALP 9.1%) must be considered serious chances to fall. Of these, I'm inclined to plump for Miranda on geography alone; it's an entirely Sutherland shire electorate. I've shied away neighbouring Menai given that it was one of five seats included in a Daily Telegraph poll that produced a collective Labor 2PP of 58%. I don't believe Drummoyne (ALP 8.7%) is a serious chance given its Labor history and inner suburban character.

Were the Liberals performing better in this election campaign, more focus would be placed upon regional seats like Port Stephens (ALP 7.2%) and Kiama (ALP 8.3%). As it is, Opposition-held seats like Terrigal (Lib 0.6%) and South Coast (Lib 1.6%) appear more vulnerable. However, I am not predicting any Labor gains.

Perhaps I should also devote space to the Greens challenges to Balmain (ALP 7.1%) and Marrickville (ALP 10.0%). However, I see no chance of the Greens taking the latter seat. Whilst Balmain would be a 50/50 proposition were the Liberals to direct preferences to the Greens. The Liberals though, seem set to preference neither party.

In summary:

Labor-held to Liberal: Wollondilly, Miranda
Independent to Liberal: Manly
Notional National to actual National: Murray-Darling

The rest, including the pseudo-independent held seats of Newcastle, Hawkesbury and Macquarie Fields and the vacant Swansea will revert to their 2003 colour. With the exception of Pittwater, where I'm predicting 2005 by-election winner Alex McTaggert will retain his seat.

A very status-quo election result. Thus the next NSW parliament will look like this:
Labor 53 (-2)
Liberal 22 (+3)
National 12 (-)
Independent 6 (-1)